In November, Governor Greg Abbott unveiled what he calls a “bold” plan: eliminate school district property taxes on homesteads and replace roughly $35 to $39 billion in local school funding with the state’s current budget surplus and other state revenues. And he’s been on the campaign stump telling Texans how it’s going to work. For homeowners, especially in rural counties where property valuations have skyrocketed, the idea sounds appealing. But the math behind the proposal—and its long-term consequences—deserves a closer look, especially for communities like ours.
Texas has a $24 billion surplus today. It does not have one every year. Anyone who has lived in the Panhandle or Permian Basin knows exactly why: oil and gas prices rise and fall, and state revenue rises and falls with them. That’s the problem at the heart of Abbott’s plan. He’s proposing to use temporary money to eliminate a permanent revenue source—the very taxes that keep our schools open.
Currently, public education in Texas is funded through a partnership between the state and local districts. Property taxes are stable even in recessions. They do not collapse when people stop spending or when oil prices tank. State revenue does. That’s why the Legislative Budget Board, the state’s own nonpartisan fiscal authority, testified during the last legislative session that replacing school property taxes sustainably would require raising the state sales tax to 22 percent. Abbott says he won’t raise taxes at all. So the question becomes: where will the money come from?
At the very same time he’s proposing to eliminate school property taxes, Abbott is also pushing a new $1 billion school voucher program that will grow to $7 billion by 2028. Every dollar that goes to subsidize private school tuition is a dollar that cannot be used to fund public schools—which educate 88 percent of Texas children. Vouchers siphon funds away from school districts already struggling to hire teachers, maintain facilities, and keep campuses safe.
Rural Texas stands to lose the most. Our districts serve sparse populations, operate on tight margins, and often rely on the state for an outsized percent of their budgets. A district like Ector County is already staring down a $24 million deficit despite new revenue. Tax caps limit their ability to raise funds locally. Without stable state support, the coming decade could bring a wave of school closures, larger class sizes, and staff layoffs that reverse the hard-won gains from 2025’s HB2 teacher pay raises.
And schools are only part of the story.
In 2025, the Legislature made meaningful investments in rural Texas: broadband expansion, water infrastructure, mental health services, EMS upgrades, and disaster recovery funds that help small counties rebuild after fires and floods. Rural hospitals secured new reimbursement models and federal support to keep their doors open. These projects matter—in some places, they mean the difference between life and death.
But these investments depend on ongoing state revenue. If we eliminate $35 billion per year in stable property tax collections, there will be tough choices ahead. History tells us what gets cut first: the programs that serve small, rural populations with little political clout. Rural EMS. Rural water systems. Rural roads. Rural hospitals. Rural schools.
We’ve already watched too many communities lose their clinics, too many parents drive 40 miles for a pediatrician, too many fire districts fundraising for basic gear. We cannot afford to make ourselves even more vulnerable.
The truth is simple: there is no free lunch in state budgeting. Property tax relief is a worthy goal, but real reform requires structural changes—not a one-time surplus that vanishes as quickly as it came. Rural Texans know better than most how unpredictable the energy economy is. Basing our entire public school system on volatile state revenue isn’t bold. It’s reckless.
Governor Abbott’s plan may sound good in a campaign speech, but the numbers don’t lie. The burden of this experiment will fall disproportionately on rural communities—those already overlooked, already underfunded, already stretching every dollar.
Before Texas takes a leap this big, we must ask a basic question: who pays the price when the surplus dries up?
If you live in rural Texas, the answer is clear.
Suzanne Bellsnyder is editor and publisher of the Hansford County Reporter-Statesman and Sherman County Gazette. A former Capitol staffer with decades of experience in Texas politics and policy, she now focuses on how state decisions shape rural life through her newspapers and the Texas Rural Reporter. You can subscribe to the newsletter at www.TexasRuralReporter.Substack.com